Oregon is coming off a first round 51-34 home win over James Madison in which they failed to cover as a more than 3-touchdown favorite. Their offense moved the ball at will against a James Madison defense which entered that matchup as statistically one of the best in the country. However, facing the level of competition JMU faced as opposed to playing a power conference slate is night and day. Nonetheless, Oregon allowed JMU to amass an alarmingly high 509 yards of total offense in that contest. The Ducks defense will be facing a Texas Tech team that averages 42.5 points scored and 474.3 yards of total offense per game. The Red Raiders have scored 34 points or more in 11 of their 13 games this season.

Texas Tech enters this quarterfinal matchup with a sparkling 12-1 record and they won the Big 12 championship game with a convincing win over BYU (12-2). As a matter of fact, they handed BYU their only 2 losses of the season and outscored them by a combined 63-14 and outgained the Cougars 742-458. The Red Raiders lone loss came at Arizona State (8-4) by a narrow 4-point margin. However, since that defeat, they've cone 6-0 SU&ATS and outscored their opponents by a substantial 33.7 points per game. Additionally, during this 6-game unbeaten streak, Texas Tech allowed a mere 8.6 points and 228.7 yards per game. They also forced 18 turnovers. By the way, Oregon has forced 17 turnover this season and the Red Raiders exceeded that in their previous 6 games alone. The Red Raiders have an outstanding +17 turnover margin this season. Don't undervalue that aspect in a game which oddsmakers have deemed it to be a pretty even matchup.

Bet on Texas Tech as a point-spread underdog.

I cashed with Alabama in their first round 34-24 win at Oklahoma. However, I wasn't overly enamored by their overall performance. Despite that win, the Crimson Tide were outgained by 102 yards in the contest. That makes 3 uninspiring games in a row for Alabama that also included a 27-20 win at Auburn (5-7) and a 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. They were outgained and had less than 300 yards of total offense on each occasion. The Crimson Tide continued their trend of not being able to run the ball effectively in all 3 games and that's been an issue most of the 2025 season. They won't be able to get away with that against #1 Indiana (13-0) who has allowed 92 or fewer yards rushing during 11 of their previous 12 games.

Indiana will make the Alabama offense be one-dimensional and rely heavily on their passing game. That's not good news for the Crimson Tide considering the weather forecast is calling for rain throughout the game. I also look for the Indiana pass rush to be a major factor as well as a result. Indiana has sacked the quarterback 39 times this season. As opposed to Alabama, Indiana has a potent running attack which has rushed for 300 yards or more 6 times this year. Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Francisco Mendoza of Indiana has accounted for 3220 yards of total offense and 39 touchdowns this season with his arm and legs. The Hoosiers have only turned the ball over 8 times in their first 13 games. They have a huge +17 turnover margin on the season. The Hoosier defense has forced 15 turnovers throughout its last 6 games. Indiana has posted huge wins already this season over #2 Ohio State (12-1) in the Big 10 Championship Game and at #5 Oregon (12-1). On both occasions their defense was superb.

Bet on the Indiana Hoosiers as a point-spread favorite of 8.0 or lower for a 5% Best Bet.